Warum "Zero-Sum" ein Irrtum ist und die Suche gerade erst beginnt

Here you can find all parts of our blog series:
Part 2 - The "December 2025 Core Update" and how to regain visibility | can be found here
Part 3 - Advertising in the age of conversation – Why keywords are no longer enough | can be found here
Part 4 - 2026 and the era of agentic search – When customers are no longer human | can be found here

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Blog series: The Transformation of Search 2026 (Part 1/4) 

Looking back at the year 2025, we see a battlefield. It was the year when theoretical discussions about AI in marketing suddenly became serious. It was the year when publishers panicked, stock prices wavered, and Google's Vice President Liz Reid said a sentence in the Wall Street Journal that would go down in the history of digital marketing: "We are in an expansionary moment."  

For many of our clients at internetwarriors, however, it didn’t feel like expansion in December 2025, but rather contraction. Yet the data presents a more complex picture. In this first part of our four-part series at the start of 2026, we analyze the macroeconomic level of the "new search." We deconstruct Google's strategy and explain why the classic SEO thinking focused on "clicks" must give way to a new thinking in "transactions." 

The fear of the zero-sum game 

By the end of 2025, the SEO industry was dominated by a simple, fear-driven calculation: The "zero-sum game." The logic seemed irrefutable: If an AI (be it ChatGPT, Perplexity, or Google AI Overviews) provides the answer directly, users no longer click on the website. 

• 1 AI answer = 1 lost click for the publisher 

• Therefore: The ecosystem shrinks 

This fear fueled the volatility we saw at the end of the year. But in December 2025, Liz Reid, VP of Search at Google, countered this thesis in a much-discussed interview with the Wall Street Journal. Her core message: We view the cake as static when it is actually growing.

The theory of the "expansionary moment" 

Reid argued that we are experiencing an "expansionary moment." Through AI's ability to process more complex queries ("Plan a 3-day trip to Paris with kids for under 500 euros"), induced demand is created. 

In the past, users would have broken down this complex question into ten separate searches – or not asked at all, knowing Google would fail. Today, they ask the question. 

The paradox Reid describes is crucial for your 2026 marketing strategy: 

"Making these things easier causes people to ask more questions... to get more help."  

Even if the click-through rate (CTR) per individual search decreases because AI provides the answer, the total search volume increases so significantly that the absolute traffic remains stable or even grows. Reid emphasizes: "Those two things end up balancing out."  

For website operators, this means: Traffic will not disappear, but it will shift. The simple questions ("How tall is the Eiffel Tower?") are lost to you. The complex questions ("Which hotel in Paris offers babysitting and is centrally located?") will surge. 

The "Shoe Paradox": Information vs. Transaction 

One of the most important strategic insights for 2026 is hidden in Reid's "shoe example." When asked about the threat to the business model, she replied dryly: 

"If the ads are for shoes, you might get an answer on AI overviews, but you still have to buy the shoes. None of the AIs substitute the need for the actual pair of shoes."

This statement is invaluable. It draws a hard line through the internet: 

1. Information Arbitrage (At Risk): Websites that only aggregate information from others (e.g., "The 10 Best Running Shoes") will be replaced by AI. AI is the better aggregator. 

2. Transaction Origin (Safe): Websites that have the actual thing (the shoe, the hotel room, the service) are irreplaceable. 

For our clients at internetwarriors, this means: If your business model is based on capturing and redirecting traffic without offering your own added value, 2025 was your last good year. But if you own the product or expertise, your golden era now begins. 

The Stability of Advertising Revenue: A Peek into the Books 

Many analysts expected Google's advertising revenue to collapse as users clicked less. But the numbers show stability. Liz Reid confirmed that ad revenue in the environment of AI Overviews has remained "relatively stable." 

Why? Because the new search queries in AI mode (more about this in Part 3) are often 2 to 3 times longer than classic keywords.1 

Longer queries mean more context. More context means more precise targeting.  Users searching for "running shoes" might just be browsing.  Users looking for "running shoes for a marathon under 3 hours in the rain" have their credit card ready. 

The clicks become fewer, but they become more valuable. We are moving from an economy of attention (traffic) to an economy of intent (intent). 

Conclusion and Outlook 

The year 2025 taught us that Google is willing to cannibalize its own core business to stay ahead in the AI race. For companies, this means: Don't panic over the loss of traffic from simple keywords. Focus on the complex questions and transactions. 

Yet, while the leadership at Google talks of expansion, the reality for many SEOs in December 2025 looked different. In the next part of this series, we analyze the "December 2025 Core Update" – an algorithmic bloodbath that enforced this new reality. 

Do you have questions about your traffic development in 2025? The internetwarriors team would be happy to analyze your data and help you capitalize on the new opportunities.